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GPRE

Green PlainsA
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 swing to $67.1 million of net income, stronger crush margin and operating cash flow show meaningful earnings leverage if ethanol economics and 45Z realization persist. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
45Z credit value was a large share of Q2 adjusted EBITDA; future realization and economics require monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
30
Value
64
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.50
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -3.2
Value64 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 45Z credit value was a large share of Q2 adjusted EBITDA; future realization and economics require monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Ethanol crush margins could normalize after a strong Q2. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Revenue declined to $446.2 million from $552.8 million and gallons sold fell year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Separate base earnings from 45Z credit value

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-3.2
Δ21d
-3.9
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
-7.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 30.4 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 64.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$984.14M
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
70.1M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-7.8
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
9.06
Rev YoY
-15.2%
EPS YoY
-176.0%
Gross Margin
+11.8%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$234.57M
Current Ratio
1.99
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data