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GPRE

Green PlainsB
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a materially improved earnings profile, with strong crush margins, 45Z credit contribution, and stated debt-reduction intent. Before the print, UBS raised its target to $20 from $12 while retaining Neutral and increased its 2026 EBITDA estimate to $283 million from $149 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
45Z tax-credit value contributed $58.7 million of Q2 adjusted EBITDA, creating concentration and durability risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
19
Value
61
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.00
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -11.2
Value61 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 45Z tax-credit value contributed $58.7 million of Q2 adjusted EBITDA, creating concentration and durability risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Debt reduction depends on continued cash generation and successful execution of capital-allocation priorities. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • The improvement is partly credit-driven and remains exposed to utilization, plant volumes, ethanol economics, maintenance, and execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 earnings reset: profit and EBITDA inflection

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.2
Δ21d
-16.7
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+15.4
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 18.6 / Value 61.2 / Sentiment 70.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.13B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
70.1M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.0
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
10.42
Rev YoY
-15.2%
EPS YoY
-176.0%
Gross Margin
+11.8%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$234.57M
Current Ratio
1.99
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data