GLD

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has risen by 13% thus far in 2026. The broad index is on track for another above-average performance; historically, its annual gains are around just 10%. However, with many stocks continuing to perform well, the index, which tracks the leading companies on U.S. markets, has thrived. Gold, meanwhile, which investors typically turn to when they're worried about the stock market, has been going in the opposite direction. Its value has been diminishing, a sharp turnaround from earlier in the year, when gold was hitting record levels. The SPDR Gold Shares(NYSEMKT:GLD) fund, which tracks gold, is up only 3% this year. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » However, with no shortage of economic and political uncertainty ahead, will this pattern continue? Is tracking the S&P 500 still the ideal move for investors, or is it time to buy SPDR Gold Shares? Image source: Getty Images. The S&P 500 is trading around record levels. Everything is rosy on the markets, or so it seems. But there are worries that a rate hike may be around the corner, which could finally derail this bullish rally. Next week, the Fed meets again and decides whether to raise interest rates. And according to the CME FedWatch tool from the CME Group, there is a 60% probability that rates will increase. A rate increase would be bad news for businesses, as it would raise borrowing costs, and it may also lead to greater friction between the Fed and the U.S. president, who has been pushing for rate cuts. The tension could encourage investors to seek out safer options such as gold, rather than invest in the S&P 500. While the index has been doing well this year, it may not take much to give investors a reason to cash out, given that it's been doing well for multiple years now. Since 2023, the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value. If there are concerns about the market's stability in the near future, it may be gold that investors pile money into, as they have in the past when they've been concerned about the stock market. It was toward the end of last year, when worries about sky-high valuations in tech spooked investors, that led to a rally in gold. Although it's been falling in recent months, there has been some upward momentum in recent weeks, suggesting that a growing number of investors are once again turning to the precious metal. The counterpoint, however, is that gold has already risen significantly in recent years, and while its value can be highly speculative, it's not a guarantee it will soar, even if investors are concerned about the overall markets. The SPDR Gold Shares fund has risen by 140% since 2023 -- a faster pace than the rate of the S&P 500. Although the price of gold has risen sharply in the past few years, it's still a valuable go-to asset for risk-averse investors, and it may be in high demand in the coming weeks and months, especially if there are renewed concerns about high stock valuations and Fed independence. The S&P 500 has performed well, but if interest rates rise and companies have to scale back plans for capital expenditures, particularly in the tech sector, that could be awful news for the overall market. Buying the SPDR Gold Shares fund can be a good move for investors, if for no other reason than to diversify and reduce risk and exposure to the S&P 500 at a time when its valuation looks awfully high. Before you buy stock in SPDR Gold Shares, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and SPDR Gold Shares wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,997!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,413,876!* That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by nearly 5x, Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of September 8, 2026. David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CME Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Investing in Gold or the S&P 500: What's the Best Move for Investors in the Final Quarter of 2026? was originally published by The Motley Fool

GLDM fell 16% in Q2 2026, marking its worst quarter since 2013, though central banks continue to absorb roughly 1,000 tonnes of gold annually and set a structural demand floor. GLDM's 0.10% expense ratio runs four times cheaper than GLD's 0.40%, a cost gap that compounds materially across a multi-year hold. JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and UBS all cut near-term gold price targets during the selloff but maintained bullish long-term outlooks. Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now. Gold's second quarter of 2026 was ugly enough to make anyone question the trade. The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSEARCA:GLDM) fell 16% between April 1 and June 30, its worst quarterly move in more than a decade. For context, the reference sibling SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) went from about $424 at the end of April to about $368 at the end of June, a slide comparable in scale to the infamous Q2 2013 collapse from about $143 to about $119. Rising real yields, a firmer dollar, and rotation back into AI-flavored equities did the damage. Yet the structural bid that pushed GLDM to its January highs never actually left the building. Central banks do not trade gold the way you and I do. They accumulate it as a reserve asset at a pace with little modern precedent. Official-sector purchases have averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022, absorbing a meaningful share of mine supply and setting a demand floor underneath the market. A record share of surveyed central banks say they plan to add more. That behavior is driven by reserve diversification away from dollar assets, not by whether spot printed a lower low last Tuesday. The buyer that helped drive the last leg higher does not care about the last leg lower. Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now. Institutional retail followed the same script early in the year. Gold and precious metals ETFs pulled in $4.39 billion of inflows in January 2026, with gold miner funds attracting $3.62 billion, the highest reading since at least 2009. Through the selloff, the major desks cut price targets while keeping them above spot and reiterated the structural case. JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank both maintained bullish long-term outlooks even as they flagged near-term pressure from the strong dollar and rising Treasury yields. J.P. Morgan and UBS Global Wealth Management remain constructive. The narrative has shifted from "gold at fair value" to "gold on sale," which is a constructive stance. GLDM exists for one specific reason. It is a low-cost wrapper around physical bullion. The expense ratio is 0.10%, versus 0.40% for GLD, a fee gap that compounds meaningfully over a multi-year hold. When the underlying asset is identical, paying more for brand recognition is a choice you are actively making. Todd Rosenbluth of VettaFi flagged exactly this point in March, highlighting cost efficiency in a commodity ETF where the exposure is uniform. The long-term math has cooperated. GLDM is up 20% over the past year and 124% over five years, even after the recent damage. Year to date, it sits down 6%, near $80 a share. Calling this dip a buy would be a recommendation rather than an observation. Gold has repeatedly failed at technical support during this correction, and there is nothing structural preventing another leg down if real yields grind higher or the dollar keeps firming. Recent ETF flows have turned to redemptions rather than inflows in parts of the complex, which signals no capitulation. Bullion also pays you zero while you wait, which matters more when short Treasuries yield real money. If the Fed stays hawkish longer than consensus assumes, holding GLDM means watching opportunity cost accumulate. GLDM makes sense as a 5% to 10% strategic sleeve for investors who want direct bullion exposure at the lowest fee in the category and can tolerate multi-quarter drawdowns without flinching. Anyone treating gold as a trade for the next Fed meeting should look elsewhere. The structural story that drove the record was not built in a quarter, and it will not be resolved in one either. Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

GDX dropped 21% in Q2 2026 but remains up 50% over the trailing year, creating a contrarian setup for gold miner bulls. GLD returned 22% over the past year while GDX returned 50%, showing that miners' operational leverage amplifies gold's upside just as it amplifies its downside. Genesis Minerals' $3.9 billion rival bid for Vault Minerals signals producers view gold ounces as cheap and their cash flows as durable. Many financial professionals are salespeople paid on what they push, not whether you end up wealthier. A fiduciary is the opposite. The SEC legally requires them to put your interests first. Advisor.com's free matching tool pairs you with vetted fiduciaries from major national firms, all in under three minutes. See who you match with today. Gold miners just got taken to the woodshed. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) shed 21% in the second quarter of 2026, sliding from $96 in early April to roughly $75 by June 30, one of the ugliest three-month stretches for the sector in over a decade. Yet GDX is still up almost 50% over the trailing year. Contrarians hunt exactly that gap between recent pain and the underlying trend, and GDX is the cleanest way to express it. GDX tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, a basket of large-cap producers led by Newmont (NYSE:NEM), Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM), Barrick Gold (NYSE:B), and royalty companies like Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) and Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM). You are buying the businesses that dig it up, refine it, and sell it, which is a very different animal from owning the metal itself. Most Americans suspect they're behind on retirement and never find out. Advisor.com's free matching tool pairs you in about three minutes with a vetted fiduciary advisor who can help you with investing, taxes, retirement, estate planning, and more. No minimums. No sales call. Find out where you stand. The return engine is operational leverage. A miner's all-in sustaining cost might sit around $1,400 an ounce. When gold trades at $2,000, that spread is one thing. When gold pushes to $3,000, the extra revenue drops almost entirely to the bottom line. Free cash flow explodes, dividends get raised, and the equity re-rates. That mechanic runs in reverse on the way down, which is what just happened. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), the physical bullion proxy, fell roughly 12% from early April through early July. GDX fell closer to 16% over the same window. Miners amplified the move, as they always do. But zoom out and the same leverage runs the other way. Over five years, GLD returned 126% while GDX returned 144%. Over one year, gold gained 22% while miners gained 50%. When gold trends up, miners typically outrun it. When gold rolls over, they get hit harder. But how come the dying sector story does not hold? Look at what management teams are doing with their cash. Genesis Minerals just launched a rival $3.9 billion bid for Vault Minerals, an aggressive move producers make when they see ounces as cheap and their own cash flows as durable. Boards do not authorize hostile bids of that size if they believe the cycle is over. Sustained weakness across the peer group looks more like a grinding correction than panic capitulation, with cash flows still supporting dividends and buybacks. GDX is a satellite position, not a core holding. A reasonable framework treats gold exposure as 5% to 10% of a diversified portfolio, split between bullion (GLD or IAU) and miners (GDX). The bullion piece is your insurance policy. The miners piece is your call option on gold trending higher, with operational leverage doing the work. Sizing GDX above 5% invites drawdowns like the one that just happened. The tradeoffs are still real, because: Volatility that hurts. A 21% quarter is a structural feature of this fund. If you cannot stomach that on 5% of your book, own bullion instead. Concentration risk. The top holdings dominate the index, so Newmont's cost overruns or Barrick's political headaches show up in your returns whether gold moves or not. Catching a falling knife is a real risk. Miners can grind lower for months before turning, and averaging in beats trying to time it. GDX fits an investor who already holds some bullion, believes the gold cycle has further to run, and wants operational leverage without picking a single miner. It does not fit anyone treating gold as a sleep-well-at-night allocation. For that use case, bullion serves better than the equities. The contrarian case for miners rests on cash flow, M&A activity, and a peer group that just corrected hard while gold itself is still up over the year. That is a setup worth watching, ideally with a plan to add on further weakness rather than a single lump-sum entry at $78. Most Americans have no idea where they actually stand. Most guess, or hope Social Security and a 401(k) will work out. Advisor.com's new matching tool gives you a real answer, free. They pair you with a fiduciary (required by law to put YOUR interest first) with questions related to taxes, estate planning, retirement, insurance analysis, and more. See you who you match with today, and get the answers you need. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.