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GGG

GracoA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Organic orders and sales grew despite mixed end markets. Sustained conversion, stronger acquired-business margins and ABB commercialization could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Higher product costs could continue to absorb price realization and restrain margins. [#10-Q-2026-10-21]
Momentum
68
Value
59
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $82.00 · Bull $94.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $92.17
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -3.1
Value59 · Δ7d +3.6
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +20.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher product costs could continue to absorb price realization and restrain margins. [#10-Q-2026-10-21]
  • • Management described end-market conditions as mixed, making order conversion and Q4 revenue guidance execution uncertain. [#PR-2026-10-21]
  • • Adjusted operating earnings grew just 1% against 8% sales growth, and Valco Melton was loss-making in its first reported post-close period.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30

Post-earnings margin and valuation reassessment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
+7.4
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
77
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.7
Δ21d
+4.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 67.8 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 77.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$94.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.85B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
161.95M
P/E (TTM)
28.5
P/S (TTM)
6.32
P/FCF (TTM)
31.18
Rev YoY
+3.3%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
+27.4%
Net Debt
-$572.49M
Current Ratio
2.99
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data