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GGG

GracoA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 sales rose 8% to $586.4 million, including 4% organic growth, while organic orders rose 7%. If backlog converts and Valco Melton margins improve, the post-print sell-off could prove excessive.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
ABB data-center installations are targeted only by end-2029, with no verified near-term earnings contribution. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
Momentum
68
Value
59
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $70.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $55.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $92.17
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -21.9
Value59 · Δ7d +3.6
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +20.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ABB data-center installations are targeted only by end-2029, with no verified near-term earnings contribution. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
  • • Q3 adjusted operating margin was 27%, down about 180 basis points year over year; reported operating earnings fell 10%. [#10-Q-2026-10-21]
  • • Adjusted EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $586.4 million narrowly missed the $0.83 and $590.2 million FactSet estimates reported by MT Newswires.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Q4 sales guidance and backlog conversion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.9
Δ21d
-11.3
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
77
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.5
Δ21d
+7.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 67.8 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 77.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.85B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
161.95M
P/E (TTM)
28.5
P/S (TTM)
6.32
P/FCF (TTM)
31.18
Rev YoY
+3.3%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
+27.4%
Net Debt
-$572.49M
Current Ratio
2.99
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data