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GGB

Gerdau n-vtg PfdC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The cleanest bull argument is that 1Q26 showed better operating leverage than the stock had been discounting, with North America generating most of consolidated EBITDA and management signaling 2Q26 margin growth, backlog support, and metal spread expansion.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.5.
What can break
2026 project execution at Miguel Burnier and Midlothian remains a monitoring point rather than a proven earnings driver.
Momentum
57
Value
62
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.45 · Bull $4.90 · Bear $3.90Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.28
Why
Momentum57 · Δ7d +8.0
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +1.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 project execution at Miguel Burnier and Midlothian remains a monitoring point rather than a proven earnings driver.
  • • Brazilian operations still face high import penetration and pressured domestic pricing.
  • • The bear case is that Brazil remains under clear import and pricing pressure, the earnings rebound is concentrated in one region, and visible post-print analyst revision breadth remains thin.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

1Q26 reset was driven by North America with a firmer 2Q26 operating setup

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
57
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-14.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 57.0 / Value 62.2 / Sentiment 52.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.79B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
1.24B
P/E (TTM)
13.9
P/S (TTM)
0.56
P/FCF (TTM)
16.64
Rev YoY
+14.4%
EPS YoY
+94.5%
Gross Margin
+13.2%
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$1.68B
Current Ratio
2.87
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data