B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GFF
GriffonBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 residential-led volume growth, favorable price/mix, reduced leverage and the streamlined building-products portfolio could support better cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
Debt service and cash conversion need monitoring after the $800 million senior-notes offering [#8-K-2026-08-19].
Momentum
70
Value
61
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $98.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $75.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $126.86
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d -3.6
Value61 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Debt service and cash conversion need monitoring after the $800 million senior-notes offering [#8-K-2026-08-19].
- • Housing and commercial-construction demand may remain soft; sustained price/mix gains are not assured.
- • Adjusted EBITDA grew more slowly than revenue because of higher material and SG&A costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-01
Results after building-products simplification
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-16.5
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
-17.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 70.3 / Value 61.4 / Sentiment 53.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.4B
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
45.29M
P/E (TTM)
75.0
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
13.11
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
-146.4%
Gross Margin
+42.9%
Op Margin
+19.7%
Net Debt
$1.49B
Current Ratio
2.41
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data