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GFF

GriffonA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 operating results were solid, with reported revenue and adjusted EPS beating estimates in stored earnings context; price/mix, cost discipline, strategic simplification, and deleveraging support a constructive medium-term case [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-14][#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Despite deleveraging, total debt was approximately $1.3 billion and net debt approximately $1.2 billion, leaving balance-sheet and refinancing sensitivity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
82
Value
63
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $108.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $80.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $127.00
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -4.1
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Despite deleveraging, total debt was approximately $1.3 billion and net debt approximately $1.2 billion, leaving balance-sheet and refinancing sensitivity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • Material and selling, general and administrative cost increases could offset price/mix benefits [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • The thesis remains exposed to soft U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-01

Pure-play building-products transition

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
+4.9
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+5.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 81.9 / Value 63.1 / Sentiment 73.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.63B
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
45.29M
P/E (TTM)
75.0
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
13.11
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
-146.4%
Gross Margin
+42.9%
Op Margin
+19.7%
Net Debt
$1.49B
Current Ratio
2.41
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data