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GDEV

GDEVC
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Marketing restraint improved Q2 operating cash flow, and paying-user stabilization could make the current cost base more valuable. The completed tender shows willingness to return cash, but only 57,110 shares—about 0.3% of shares outstanding—were purchased.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA declined despite substantial marketing cuts, limiting confidence that expense discipline can offset weaker demand. [#IR-2026-08-21]
Momentum
56
Value
59
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $70.00
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -
Value59 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA declined despite substantial marketing cuts, limiting confidence that expense discipline can offset weaker demand. [#IR-2026-08-21]
  • • Island Hoppers' expected $2.1 million accelerated revenue recognition is one-time and could obscure underlying trends; closing timing was not confirmed in the checked source. [#IR-2026-08-21]
  • • The Q2 decline in bookings and paying users outweighed improved monetization per payer; adjusted EBITDA also fell.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Island Hoppers disposal accounting

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 55.7 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 49.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$177.22M
Beta
2.30
Shares Out
18.18M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
0.65
P/FCF (TTM)
9.91
Rev YoY
-22.0%
EPS YoY
+20.3%
Gross Margin
+64.6%
Op Margin
+19.9%
Net Debt
-$107.23M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data