B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GDEV
GDEVCNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company is converting a smaller revenue base into improved profitability and cash flow through tighter user-acquisition spending, higher monetization, a growing mobile mix, and a $20 million self-tender offer.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
A director sold 10,654 ordinary shares at $13.45 on June 3, 2026 and reported zero shares afterward [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-03].
Momentum
56
Value
59
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.80 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $70.00
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A director sold 10,654 ordinary shares at $13.45 on June 3, 2026 and reported zero shares afterward [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-03].
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined in Q2 despite materially lower selling and marketing expense.
- • The core demand trend remains weak: Q2 bookings fell 21%, monthly paying users fell 23%, revenue fell 22%, and adjusted EBITDA declined despite lower marketing spend.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-21
Q2 results show profitability resilience but weaker demand
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+12.1
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 55.7 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 60.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$217.08M
Beta
2.30
Shares Out
18.15M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
0.65
P/FCF (TTM)
9.91
Rev YoY
-22.0%
EPS YoY
+20.3%
Gross Margin
+64.6%
Op Margin
+19.9%
Net Debt
-$107.23M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data