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GBX

Greenbrier CompaniesB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved manufacturing margins, 99% lease utilization, fleet growth, and a $2.0 billion backlog provide credible support for gradual earnings improvement. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-01]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
A July 13 open-market sale by an SVP covering Europe is a monitoring item, but it is not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-15]
Momentum
24
Value
55
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.50 · Bull $49.10 · Bear $40.90Analysis 2026-08-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.33
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -0.1
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A July 13 open-market sale by an SVP covering Europe is a monitoring item, but it is not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-15]
  • • Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, and target changes are unavailable.
  • • The Q3 revenue decline, fewer deliveries, and management's reference to deferred demand leave execution and end-market timing uncertain.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-13

Q3 FY26 margin and earnings improvement

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-17.6
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+9.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 23.9 / Value 55.2 / Sentiment 70.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$45.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.42B
Beta
1.66
Shares Out
30.94M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
34.96
Rev YoY
-31.4%
EPS YoY
-68.1%
Gross Margin
+14.9%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
$1.51B
Current Ratio
2.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data