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GBX

Greenbrier CompaniesC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $600 million fiscal Q4 order announcement, Q3 margin improvement, and 99% lease-fleet utilization could support earnings durability if orders convert profitably. [#8-K-2026-09-22] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-01]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
Lease-fleet expansion uses financing, including the $425 million non-recourse term loan announced with Q3 results; utilization, funding costs, and cash generation require monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-01]
Momentum
25
Value
55
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $37.50 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.67
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -1.8
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -17.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Lease-fleet expansion uses financing, including the $425 million non-recourse term loan announced with Q3 results; utilization, funding costs, and cash generation require monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-01]
  • • Q3 revenue declined sequentially because of fewer deliveries; manufacturing-margin improvement may not persist. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-01]
  • • Q3's sequential revenue decline shows that orders and backlog do not ensure near-term deliveries.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26 · AMC

Fiscal Q4 results on October 26

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.4
Δ21d
-24.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 25.5 / Value 55.2 / Sentiment 53.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$37.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.18B
Beta
1.66
Shares Out
30.94M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
34.96
Rev YoY
-31.4%
EPS YoY
-68.1%
Gross Margin
+14.9%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
$1.51B
Current Ratio
2.82
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data