B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FTNT
FortinetFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest supported bull argument is a genuine beat-and-raise: Q1 exceeded the high end of company guidance, billings/product growth reaccelerated sharply, and free cash flow was record level. The March 2026 FortiOS 8.0 launch and the Arista/MPS Secure AI Data Center proof point give investors dated product and partner/customer milestones to monitor after the earnings print.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Competitive pressure in firewall, SASE, and broader enterprise security remains high, especially against direct operating comparators Palo Alto Networks, Check Point, and Cisco.
Momentum
82
Value
51
Sentiment
27
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $109.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $92.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $166.54
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -1.2
Value51 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment27 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competitive pressure in firewall, SASE, and broader enterprise security remains high, especially against direct operating comparators Palo Alto Networks, Check Point, and Cisco.
- • Fortinet still has to prove that FortiOS 8.0, secure AI controls, SASE, and Secure AI Data Center launches convert into durable adoption rather than a temporary launch-cycle narrative.
- • The bear case is that the easy rerating may already have happened.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 beat-and-raise rerating after strong billings and cash flow
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
27
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 82.0 / Value 51.1 / Sentiment 26.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$109.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$114.35B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
733.71M
P/E (TTM)
32.1
P/S (TTM)
8.84
P/FCF (TTM)
28.57
Rev YoY
+25.6%
EPS YoY
+43.9%
Gross Margin
+80.2%
Op Margin
+32.4%
Net Debt
-$2.52B
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data