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FTNT

FortinetF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest supported bull argument is a genuine beat-and-raise: Q1 exceeded the high end of company guidance, billings/product growth reaccelerated sharply, and free cash flow was record level. The March 2026 FortiOS 8.0 launch and the Arista/MPS Secure AI Data Center proof point give investors dated product and partner/customer milestones to monitor after the earnings print.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Competitive pressure in firewall, SASE, and broader enterprise security remains high, especially against direct operating comparators Palo Alto Networks, Check Point, and Cisco.
Momentum
83
Value
50
Sentiment
14
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $109.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $92.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
58 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $171.92
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +1.0
Value50 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment14 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
58Near miss2026-10-28 amc
View setup

Fortinet rebounded 6.4% from Oct. 16 to Oct. 23 and closed near the Oct. 23 high, while Q2 company guidance and growing security offerings support momentum. But the checked sources did not establish a positive Q3 EPS revision, ESP, or whisper gap; recent volume also did not clear 1.5x normal, so the required earnings-surprise confirmation is absent.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 58 / near miss.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competitive pressure in firewall, SASE, and broader enterprise security remains high, especially against direct operating comparators Palo Alto Networks, Check Point, and Cisco.
  • • Fortinet still has to prove that FortiOS 8.0, secure AI controls, SASE, and Secure AI Data Center launches convert into durable adoption rather than a temporary launch-cycle narrative.
  • • The bear case is that the easy rerating may already have happened.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q1 beat-and-raise rerating after strong billings and cash flow

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+3.2
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
14
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-1.5
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 82.8 / Value 50.4 / Sentiment 13.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$109.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$132.06B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
733.71M
P/E (TTM)
32.1
P/S (TTM)
8.84
P/FCF (TTM)
28.57
Rev YoY
+25.6%
EPS YoY
+43.9%
Gross Margin
+80.2%
Op Margin
+32.4%
Net Debt
-$2.52B
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data