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FTDR

FrontdoorD
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record 2025 results, ahead-of-plan 2-10 synergy realization, strong free cash flow, and a renewal-heavy base create a plausible path to modest rerating if April 30 results confirm member growth is inflecting and margins stay near the upgraded framework.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
2-10 integration and builder-warranty underwriting/reinsurance execution disappoints.
Momentum
86
Value
58
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $61.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-14 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-14

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-14. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $97.40
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +4.7
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2-10 integration and builder-warranty underwriting/reinsurance execution disappoints.
  • • Capital returns mask softer underlying organic demand.
  • • The setup is still vulnerable to claims-cost volatility, weak housing/real-estate first-year channels, and the risk that recent growth was driven more by price, buybacks, and acquisition help than by durable organic member expansion.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q1 2026 report on April 30 sets the next near-term proof point

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+0.2
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+2.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 86.0 / Value 58.2 / Sentiment 32.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.77B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
68.89M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
2.07
P/FCF (TTM)
12.24
Rev YoY
+4.5%
EPS YoY
+18.3%
Gross Margin
+51.6%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
$628M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-09-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data