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FTAI

FTAI AviationB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Aerospace Products performance, maintenance-network expansion, the $1.465 billion Power contract, and explicit 2027 segment guidance support a multi-year earnings-growth thesis. The president's July 31 open-market purchase of approximately $498,000 provides a modest alignment signal, not operating proof.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
What can break
2026 Aviation Leasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by $100 million as the company shifted toward an asset-light model. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
13
Value
43
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $215.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-09-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $368.10
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -4.9
Value43 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 Aviation Leasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by $100 million as the company shifted toward an asset-light model. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • FTAI Power's major customer contract is expected to account for a substantial portion of its 2027 delivery target, creating customer-concentration and delivery-execution risk.
  • • Management reduced 2026 Aviation Leasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $475 million from $575 million as it pursued an asset-light model.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-15

Series D preferred dividend payment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
-6.8
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
-18.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 13.3 / Value 42.9 / Sentiment 79.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.36B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
102.71M
P/E (TTM)
51.6
P/S (TTM)
9.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-20.79
Rev YoY
+40.8%
EPS YoY
-27.9%
Gross Margin
+25.4%
Op Margin
+25.1%
Net Debt
$3.15B
Current Ratio
5.28
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data