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FTAI

FTAI AviationC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 Aerospace Products growth, the contracted Power order and additional engine feedstock support a constructive execution case. The $500 million repurchase authorization offers potential capital-return support, although purchases are discretionary.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
2026 Aviation Leasing adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by $100 million; benefits from the asset-light transition remain to be demonstrated. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
15
Value
44
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $190.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $345.55
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d -0.5
Value44 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 Aviation Leasing adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by $100 million; benefits from the asset-light transition remain to be demonstrated. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Delay, cost overrun or weaker-than-planned economics in the initial Mod-1 delivery and 2027 Power ramp.
  • • The 2027 framework depends on first delivery and a rapid Power ramp.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

First Mod-1 delivery

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+1.6
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
74
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
-1.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 15.5 / Value 44.2 / Sentiment 74.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$15.85B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
102.71M
P/E (TTM)
51.6
P/S (TTM)
9.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-14.11
Rev YoY
+40.8%
EPS YoY
-27.9%
Gross Margin
+25.4%
Op Margin
+25.1%
Net Debt
$3.15B
Current Ratio
5.28
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data