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FSLY

FastlyF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Edge compute adoption accelerates, Fastly converts large enterprise logos, and gross margins expand with higher Compute@Edge mix — leading to multiple expansion and ~50% upside from the anchor over 12–24 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Customer churn or weak renewals, intensified price competition, or execution missteps result in a deeper re-rating and recessionary traffic declines; the bear scenario implies roughly a one-third decline from the anchor.
Momentum
67
Value
44
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $11.65 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $7.80Analysis 2025-12-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $28.55
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d -26.8
Value44 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer churn or weak renewals, intensified price competition, or execution missteps result in a deeper re-rating and recessionary traffic declines; the bear scenario implies roughly a one-third decline from the anchor.
  • • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Quarterly earnings release & call

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
67
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.8
Δ21d
-28.2
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 67.2 / Value 44.2 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$11.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$4.36B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
159.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-33.0
P/S (TTM)
2.57
P/FCF (TTM)
44.50
Rev YoY
+23.3%
EPS YoY
-61.6%
Gross Margin
+59.1%
Op Margin
-12.0%
Net Debt
$68.43M
Current Ratio
3.36
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data