B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FSLR
First SolarBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 diluted EPS rose to $3.92 from $3.18 and adjusted EBITDA reached $644 million despite lower sales. Reaffirmed annual guidance, 45.1 GW of backlog and $1.7 billion of June net cash support a recovery case if deliveries and cash conversion hold.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
2026 guidance relies heavily on Section 45X manufacturing credits; changes in eligibility, realization or policy could materially alter earnings economics. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
19
Value
71
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $168.00 · Bull $220.00 · Bear $125.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $279.04
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +6.6
Value71 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance relies heavily on Section 45X manufacturing credits; changes in eligibility, realization or policy could materially alter earnings economics. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • A $1.5 billion revolving facility provides contractual capacity, not evidence that cash has been drawn or that manufacturing execution is de-risked. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000170/fslr-20260630.htm. [#REL-c11f3d9b-c957-471d-b790-583ecc10f531]
- • Backlog is not assured revenue: customer terminations and renegotiations, the disputed BP Solar Holding/Lightsource payment matter, limited-source inputs and crystalline-silicon price competition all weaken conversion visibility.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
Third-quarter module deliveries and EBITDA test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+8.5
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-4.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 18.9 / Value 71.3 / Sentiment 52.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$168.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$18.48B
Beta
1.60
Shares Out
107.47M
P/E (TTM)
20.9
P/S (TTM)
5.78
P/FCF (TTM)
47.50
Rev YoY
-3.7%
EPS YoY
+23.4%
Gross Margin
+44.0%
Op Margin
+35.0%
Net Debt
-$2.2B
Current Ratio
2.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data