B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FRPT
FreshpetANasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 report supports a constructive operating thesis: volume drove 15.7% sales growth, adjusted gross margin expanded to 48.6%, adjusted EBITDA increased to $52.2 million, and full-year guidance was raised. Manufacturing scale and omnichannel expansion could support further share and margin gains.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.6.
What can break
Analyst consensus, estimate revisions, and post-earnings market-reaction evidence are unavailable.
Momentum
92
Value
47
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-08-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $83.20
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d -2.8
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +12.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst consensus, estimate revisions, and post-earnings market-reaction evidence are unavailable.
- • Freshpet carries substantial debt relative to cash while continuing material capital expenditures and share repurchases.
- • The guidance raise does not eliminate execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 2026 results and raised outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.6
Δ21d
+12.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 91.5 / Value 47.3 / Sentiment 76.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.49B
Beta
1.72
Shares Out
48.06M
P/E (TTM)
26.8
P/S (TTM)
2.72
P/FCF (TTM)
1209.95
Rev YoY
+15.5%
EPS YoY
+19.2%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
$217.01M
Current Ratio
6.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data