B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$85.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FRPT
FreshpetCNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Volume-led growth, expanding adjusted gross margin, positive free-cash-flow guidance and the higher 2027 margin target support a multi-year operating-leverage case. The deterministic prior remains positive, but expected returns have moderated since the prior baseline.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Higher logistics costs, variable compensation and startup-related quality costs could delay operating-leverage conversion.
Momentum
70
Value
48
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $85.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $82.20
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +13.3
Value48 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +5.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher logistics costs, variable compensation and startup-related quality costs could delay operating-leverage conversion.
- • Management identifies economic uncertainty, new competitive products, tariffs, input and fuel costs, media effectiveness, chiller deployment and new-technology implementation as forward-looking risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • The stock has surrendered its initial post-Q2 gain despite raised guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Raised 2026 outlook after volume-led Q2 growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.3
Δ21d
+30.7
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
-17.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 69.7 / Value 48.3 / Sentiment 59.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.08B
Beta
1.72
Shares Out
48.06M
P/E (TTM)
26.8
P/S (TTM)
2.72
P/FCF (TTM)
1209.95
Rev YoY
+15.5%
EPS YoY
+19.2%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
$217.01M
Current Ratio
6.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data