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FRME

First MerchantsA
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Loan and deposit growth, improving NIM, completed integration, liquidity from the mortgage-loan sale, and ongoing repurchases support a recovery case. Management's Q2 commentary emphasized continued organic growth and a strong capital position [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
A director reported open-market sales in June 2026; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence about operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15].
Momentum
36
Value
70
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $53.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.20
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d +1.2
Value70 · Δ7d +8.8
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported open-market sales in June 2026; this is a sentiment signal only and not evidence about operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15].
  • • Additional deterioration in the two commercial credits could require further reserves or higher charge-offs [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
  • • Credit costs are the key offset: two commercial relationships entered nonaccrual status and NPAs increased to 56 basis points from 43 basis points sequentially [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].

Catalyst clock

2026-07-23

Q2 earnings reset and post-print digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-5.8
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.8
Δ21d
+8.8
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+2.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 36.4 / Value 70.5 / Sentiment 72.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.73B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
62.8M
P/E (TTM)
9.6
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
11.87
Rev YoY
+13.8%
EPS YoY
-28.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
$934.9M
Current Ratio
0.13
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data