B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$49.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FRME
First MerchantsBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company confirmed stronger Q3 earnings, sequential margin expansion, deposit growth, and a lower credit provision after the prior quarter's specific reserves. Secondary coverage reported adjusted EPS of $1.10 versus roughly $1.04 expected and revenue of $205.3 million versus roughly $203.9 million expected; these consensus comparisons are not company guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
CEO transition at year-end introduces execution risk; no post-earnings analyst revisions were verified. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Momentum
46
Value
62
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.50 · Bull $49.50 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $46.33
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d -0.3
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -14.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO transition at year-end introduces execution risk; no post-earnings analyst revisions were verified. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
- • Deposit repricing could compress margin despite Q3 expansion; reported deposit cost rose sequentially from 2.07% to 2.16%. SEC presentation
- • Loan growth slowed to 1.8% annualized in Q3, deposit cost rose, and the $29.4 million of charge-offs shows that the prior commercial-credit problem still matters.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Capital return through the CEO handoff
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
46
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-6.4
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.8
Δ21d
-23.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 46.0 / Value 62.1 / Sentiment 61.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.55B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
62.21M
P/E (TTM)
9.6
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
11.87
Rev YoY
+13.8%
EPS YoY
-28.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
$934.9M
Current Ratio
0.13
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data