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FPS

Forgent Power SolutionsD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q3 revenue increased 103% year over year, bookings increased 308%, backlog rose to $1.98 billion, and management raised fiscal 2026 guidance, supporting a constructive operating case. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-15 · BMO.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, options data, short interest, and social sentiment were not supplied.
Momentum
5
Value
50
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
42 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-09-15 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-09-10 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $59.90
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d +1.5
Value50 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -39.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
42Non-qualifying2026-09-15 bmo
View setup

Forgent had exceptional bookings, backlog, and guidance momentum plus a strong close-location reading, but consensus EPS revisions were flat-to-negative, recent volume did not exceed 1.5x normal, and the stock remained far below its recent highs after a volatile post-IPO decline.

Screen as of 2026-09-10. Window 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-16.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-15 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 42 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -39.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, options data, short interest, and social sentiment were not supplied.
  • • Backlog conversion may be delayed by project timing, customer execution, or manufacturing constraints.
  • • The strong operating trajectory appears partly reflected in expectations, while the upcoming results must prove backlog conversion and margin expansion.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-15 · BMO

Fiscal 2026 results scheduled for September 15

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-39.7
Δ21d
-14.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 5.1 / Value 49.6 / Sentiment 55.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.82B
Beta
-
Shares Out
304.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
778.2
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+103.4%
EPS YoY
+165.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$519.16M
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data