B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FOX
FoxCNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The pre-deal operating backdrop was constructive: FOX's May 11 release showed fiscal Q3 revenue of $3.99 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.32, and adjusted EBITDA of $954 million, with distribution growth, Tubi momentum, and a major World Cup programming window still ahead. If FOX can use Roku to deepen ad-tech and distribution control without overstraining the balance sheet, the combined story could support a higher multiple.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Advertising revenue remains event-sensitive; fiscal Q3 ad revenue fell year over year largely because the prior-year quarter included the Super Bowl, highlighting tough comps and cyclical volatility. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-11]
Momentum
82
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $57.00 · Bull $66.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-06-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $76.47
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -4.6
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +8.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Advertising revenue remains event-sensitive; fiscal Q3 ad revenue fell year over year largely because the prior-year quarter included the Super Bowl, highlighting tough comps and cyclical volatility. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-11]
- • Fox One launch costs and sports-rights spending could limit margin durability if digital scaling does not keep pace. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-11]
- • The Roku transaction is large and shifts the story from a relatively clean live-sports/news cash-flow setup into a higher-risk M&A integration case.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
World Cup inventory is the clearest near-term operating tailwind
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
+11.9
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.8
Δ21d
+6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 82.4 / Value 61.7 / Sentiment 57.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$27.34B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
419.65M
P/E (TTM)
17.0
P/S (TTM)
1.93
P/FCF (TTM)
13.33
Rev YoY
+28.1%
EPS YoY
+2.9%
Gross Margin
+34.2%
Op Margin
+20.4%
Net Debt
$3.36B
Current Ratio
3.17
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data