FOSL
Fossil GroupDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed real operating stabilization: revenue held up better than feared, operating margin turned positive, inventories were down 14.3% year over year, and management kept its full-year guide and Q4 growth target intact [#8-K-2026-05-13]. Secondary coverage also framed the quarter as a revenue beat versus consensus, which supports the idea that expectations had been low.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.
What can break
Direct-to-consumer sales fell 29% in constant currency and comparable retail sales fell 15% in Q1, showing that consumer traction is still fragile [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Momentum
33
Value
45
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.75 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $3.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-20
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-20
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.00
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -2.3
Value45 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-5.8
Value
45
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
61
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 32.7 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 61.2
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$244.68M
Beta
1.76
Shares Out
59.1M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.9
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM)
5.19
Rev YoY
-3.7%
EPS YoY
-95.8%
Gross Margin
+55.7%
Op Margin
-3.4%
Net Debt
$237.88M
Current Ratio
1.72
As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology