FLY

Firefly AerospaceC

Nasdaq / Capital Goods

Quote time unavailable

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$34.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

55%

Probability

Target price

$24.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$15.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-03

AI commentary

News activity is medium and mostly positive or sector-linked, but the packet lacks usable social, options, short-interest, employee-sentiment, and post-print analyst-revision data. Q2 operating results were strong on revenue and contract wins, while market reaction and estimate changes are unavailable; this supports monitoring rather than high-conviction positioning.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-03

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-02eventFY2026 guidance and Alpha execution checkpointHigh impact

Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $420 million-$450 million. Stored Q2-call context indicates 95% of midpoint revenue was booked, while 2026 Alpha cadence was reduced to three launches with Flight 8 targeted for Q4; execution and potential additional CLPS awards remain the swing factors. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12]

2026-12-02catalystPost-earnings cash-burn and margin overhangHigh impact

Q2 revenue reached a record $117.7 million, but GAAP gross margin declined to 20.3% from 21.6%, free-cash-flow outflow rose to $106.3 million, and GAAP net loss remained $92.3 million. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12]

2027-09-03catalystBacklog conversion and spacecraft-defense scaleHigh impact

The official Q2 filing release reported record revenue, a $144 million NASA CLPS award, a $75 million MoonFall subcontract, and the Space-ng acquisition. Stored earnings context reports backlog of approximately $1.5 billion and most of the 2027 Alpha manifest sold. Upside depends on converting awards into revenue while improving margins and cash flow. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology