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FLY

Firefly AerospaceC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 revenue, major NASA and defense awards, approximately $1.5 billion of backlog, and a largely booked 2026 midpoint support a constructive long-term growth case. The strongest upside would require timely Alpha launches, continued spacecraft scale, and additional CLPS wins.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -29.7.
What can break
2026 guidance depends on converting milestone-based spacecraft and defense work; additional CLPS awards are possible but not assured.
Momentum
14
Value
34
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.78
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -8.4
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d -29.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -29.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 guidance depends on converting milestone-based spacecraft and defense work; additional CLPS awards are possible but not assured.
  • • AeroEquity GP, LLC reported approximately 8.0 million shares of open-market sales at $48 on June 1, 2026, creating a potential ownership-overhang signal without implying operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-03]
  • • The company remains loss-making and cash-consuming, with lower sequential gross margin and a reduced 2026 Alpha cadence.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-02

FY2026 guidance and Alpha execution checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.4
Δ21d
-10.2
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-8.8
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-29.7
Δ21d
-9.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 14.4 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 74.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.55B
Beta
-
Shares Out
167.4M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-13.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.93
Rev YoY
+656.9%
EPS YoY
+2.1%
Gross Margin
+16.5%
Op Margin
-116.4%
Net Debt
-$584.38M
Current Ratio
2.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data