B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
FLG
Flagstar Bank National AssociationCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
NIM expansion and stable credit produce earnings upgrades and multiple expansion toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the bull target within 12 months.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.
What can break
Deposit outflows or higher funding costs
Momentum
24
Value
43
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.25
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -0.6
Value43 · Δ7d +5.4
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Deposit outflows or higher funding costs
- • Mortgage or loan credit losses and reserve increases
- • Sustained margin pressure, asset-quality deterioration, or deposit stress compress earnings and valuation, pushing the stock toward the bear scenario.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
FY2025/Q4 earnings release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+5.4
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 23.8 / Value 43.1 / Sentiment 65.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.81B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
415.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-27.7
P/S (TTM)
2.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-24.69
Rev YoY
-13.8%
EPS YoY
-129.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+2.7%
Net Debt
$11.98B
Current Ratio
0.33
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data