B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FIRY
FiryFNYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive operating turn: Q1 revenue growth accelerated, RZR more than doubled revenue, losses narrowed, net cash remained positive versus debt, and the rebrand may help investors look at FIRY as a broader portfolio rather than only a legacy mobile-gaming asset. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15] [#IR-2026-06-22]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, so thesis validation from analyst revisions and direct-comp valuation work is limited.
Momentum
89
Value
35
Sentiment
30
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.25 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-06-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.50
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d +6.2
Value35 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment30 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, so thesis validation from analyst revisions and direct-comp valuation work is limited.
- • Litigation can add volatility: the Q1 10-Q disclosed the Papaya verdict figures, but monetization timing and final remedy remain uncertain from the sources checked. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
- • Forward visibility is still weak.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Rebrand to FIRY and new portfolio framing may widen investor attention
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
89
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
-3.8
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
30
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-1.1
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 89.1 / Value 34.7 / Sentiment 30.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$155.15M
Beta
3.00
Shares Out
15.58M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.2
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.38
Rev YoY
+22.9%
EPS YoY
+31.6%
Gross Margin
+87.8%
Op Margin
-59.8%
Net Debt
-$65.79M
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data