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FINV

FinVolution GroupC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sequential Q2 revenue growth of 6%, overseas profit growth, and repurchases could support a recovery if China funding stabilizes. [#PR-2026-08-27-Q2-Results] Company Q2 release
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Credit losses for quality assurance commitments rose to RMB1,108.8 million from RMB987.1 million, which the company attributed to more overseas risk-bearing loans. [#PR-2026-08-27-Q2-Results] Company Q2 release
Momentum
15
Value
63
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.20 · Bull $4.20 · Bear $2.15Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-04 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-04 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-04

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-04. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.51
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +4.8
Value63 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +5.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit losses for quality assurance commitments rose to RMB1,108.8 million from RMB987.1 million, which the company attributed to more overseas risk-bearing loans. [#PR-2026-08-27-Q2-Results] Company Q2 release
  • • Institutional funding tightness and an evolving risk environment could drive the China volume contraction management anticipates for Q3. [#PR-2026-08-27-Q2-Results] Company Q2 release
  • • Q2 group net profit fell to RMB426.8 million from RMB751.3 million a year earlier, and management anticipates a considerable Q3 China volume contraction.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

China funding and origination test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+7.0
Value
63
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
58
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
+8.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 15.4 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 57.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-04
Market Cap
$739.6M
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
129.95M
P/E (TTM)
3.6
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
6.13
Rev YoY
-3.6%
EPS YoY
-40.1%
Gross Margin
+77.1%
Op Margin
+19.7%
Net Debt
-$1.13B
Current Ratio
3.56
As of 2026-11-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data