B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FHTX
Foghorn TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The projected runway into the second half of 2029 could give Foghorn time to advance its wholly owned programs without near-term financing, if spending falls as planned and preclinical milestones hold [#8-K-2026-10-01]. Company release filed as Exhibit 99.1
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
FHD-909 will not enter Phase 1 dose expansion, and further Lilly collaboration activity is not anticipated [#8-K-2026-10-01]. SEC filing
Momentum
2
Value
59
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.80 · Bull $3.00 · Bear $0.90Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.00
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -1.7
Value59 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -12.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FHD-909 will not enter Phase 1 dose expansion, and further Lilly collaboration activity is not anticipated [#8-K-2026-10-01]. SEC filing
- • Priority pipeline assets remain preclinical; earlier 2027 IND targets require confirmation after reprioritization [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]. SEC earnings exhibit
- • The FHD-909 efficacy shortfall and expected end of Lilly collaboration remove a major clinical and partnership pillar.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-14
FHD-909 and Lilly collaboration setback
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
2
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-86.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.7
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 2.2 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 41.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-28
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$126.49M
Beta
3.02
Shares Out
59.39M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.8
P/S (TTM)
11.49
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.63
Rev YoY
+112.7%
EPS YoY
-64.3%
Gross Margin
+94.2%
Op Margin
-186.4%
Net Debt
-$118.87M
Current Ratio
3.36
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data