B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FHTX
Foghorn TherapeuticsANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The positive case rests on continued FHD-909 Phase 1 execution with Lilly, potential clinical validation of selective SMARCA2 inhibition, and two targeted 2027 INDs that could broaden the pipeline. Approximately $168 million of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities and stated runway into the first half of 2028 reduce near-term financing pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.7.
What can break
FHD-909's economics and execution depend partly on the Lilly collaboration, while the packet does not provide enough detail to quantify future milestones or collaboration continuity.
Momentum
81
Value
41
Sentiment
97
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $9.00 · Bear $2.25Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.44
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -7.0
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment97 · Δ7d +8.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FHD-909's economics and execution depend partly on the Lilly collaboration, while the packet does not provide enough detail to quantify future milestones or collaboration continuity.
- • No human efficacy or dose-expansion data for FHD-909 were included, leaving the leading program's therapeutic profile unproven.
- • The current thesis remains driven primarily by preclinical programs and an early dose-escalation trial without disclosed human efficacy.
Catalyst clock
2027-06-30
FHD-909 Phase 1 clinical progression
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.0
Δ21d
-17.7
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
97
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.7
Δ21d
+53.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 81.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 97.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$400.26M
Beta
3.02
Shares Out
59.39M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.7
P/S (TTM)
11.49
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.15
Rev YoY
+112.7%
EPS YoY
-64.3%
Gross Margin
+94.2%
Op Margin
-186.4%
Net Debt
-$118.87M
Current Ratio
3.36
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data