RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

FDX

FedExA
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q4 proved the core parcel network still has pricing and cost-savings momentum: revenue rose to $25.0 billion, adjusted EPS reached $6.31, and management cited stronger priority yields, export volume, and transformation savings [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23]. Delayed post-print coverage has been mixed but not bearish across the board, with some analysts emphasizing underlying momentum despite near-term transition noise.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-16.
What can break
Aircraft retirements and prior MD-11 operational issues underscore continuing fleet and network execution risk [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-19].
Momentum
74
Value
59
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $355.00 · Bull $390.00 · Bear $285.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
37 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-09-16
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-09-10 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $369.41
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -7.8
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +11.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
37Non-qualifying2026-09-16
View setup

FedEx had credible revenue growth and prior guidance upgrades, but the stock was in a clear five-day decline, lacked close-location and volume confirmation, and no positive pre-event EPS revision or whisper was found.

Screen as of 2026-09-10. Window 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-16.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-16.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 37 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aircraft retirements and prior MD-11 operational issues underscore continuing fleet and network execution risk [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-19].
  • • Calendar-2026 guidance reset and reporting-basis changes may keep comparisons noisy and delay a clean rerating.
  • • The bear case is that the market is signaling skepticism that a beat on the just-reported quarter can overcome a lower-looking calendar-2026 EPS framework, stranded costs after the Freight spin, wage and purchased transportation pressure, and trade-policy impacts.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-16

Post-earnings rerating hinges on whether investors look through the transition-year EPS guide

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
+16.2
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.3
Δ21d
+8.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 73.7 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 79.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$78.42B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
236.58M
P/E (TTM)
16.4
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM)
23.33
Rev YoY
+12.5%
EPS YoY
-3.6%
Gross Margin
+21.8%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$29.4B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data