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FDX

FedExB
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Parcel yield and volume improvements plus the targeted $1.0 billion of structural savings could outweigh wage and transportation inflation. The rate increase and retained Freight stake add optionality, though neither guarantees realized upside [#10-K-2026-07-20].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Calendar-2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $3.9 billion raises the hurdle for free-cash-flow conversion [#10-K-2026-07-20].
Momentum
51
Value
59
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $307.00 · Bull $350.00 · Bear $242.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
43 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $358.38
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -1.3
Value59 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
43Non-qualifying2026-10-28 amc
View setup

FDX has a positive five-session price trend and the latest company outlook described continued growth momentum alongside Network 2.0 cost reductions. Yet available consensus estimates differ across sources, no positive near-term EPS or revenue revision/whisper signal was found, recent volume was weak relative to normal, and the transportation ETF fell sharply on Oct. 23; these factors leave no reliable surprise setup.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 43 / non-qualifying.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Calendar-2026 capital expenditure guidance of approximately $3.9 billion raises the hurdle for free-cash-flow conversion [#10-K-2026-07-20].
  • • Freight's discontinued-operations treatment and revised segment definitions complicate year-over-year valuation comparisons [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21].
  • • Pilot-contract costs, purchased transportation, trade-policy disruption and elevated network capital spending could absorb savings.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

First post-spin transition-period operating test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
+3.6
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-10.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 51.3 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 56.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$307.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$242.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$70.7B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
236.67M
P/E (TTM)
16.4
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM)
23.33
Rev YoY
+12.5%
EPS YoY
-3.6%
Gross Margin
+21.8%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$29.4B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data