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FCCO

First CommunityC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print showed stronger earnings, expanding NIM, deposit and loan growth, fee-income momentum, strong credit quality, and continued capital returns. Internal succession may reduce disruption risk.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Leadership transition and key-person execution risk around January 2027.
Momentum
51
Value
56
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.83
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -1.0
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Leadership transition and key-person execution risk around January 2027.
  • • Loan payoffs and paydowns increased, potentially moderating future loan growth.
  • • The post-earnings thesis remains constrained by low coverage, limited forward guidance, merger-related expenses, and leadership-transition execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-22

Q2 earnings beat with improving bank metrics

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 50.9 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 60.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$326.17M
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
9.4M
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
3.00
P/FCF (TTM)
37.60
Rev YoY
+23.1%
EPS YoY
+20.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+25.2%
Net Debt
$100.65M
Current Ratio
0.13
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data