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FastenalC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 delivered strong sales growth, share gains, pricing contribution, operating leverage, cash generation, and shareholder returns. Continued customer-site, digital, and key-account expansion could sustain positive earnings momentum [#SEC-8K-2026-07-14].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Growth may continue to be viewed as insufficient if margin expansion does not accompany sales gains.
Momentum
81
Value
47
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $48.58 · Bull $53.00 · Bear $40.50Analysis 2026-07-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $49.25
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +23.0
Value47 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Growth may continue to be viewed as insufficient if margin expansion does not accompany sales gains.
  • • Industrial production and manufacturing demand remain cyclical and could weaken after the strong Q2 comparison.
  • • Gross margin declined year over year and operating margin was flat because price/cost pressure offset operating leverage.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-14

Q2 2026 earnings reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.0
Δ21d
+7.6
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 81.1 / Value 46.9 / Sentiment 58.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.58
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$58.79B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
1.15B
P/E (TTM)
38.6
P/S (TTM)
5.91
P/FCF (TTM)
883.02
Rev YoY
+14.7%
EPS YoY
+15.9%
Gross Margin
+42.8%
Op Margin
+20.3%
Net Debt
$165.1M
Current Ratio
4.18
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data