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FastenalC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 EPS beat, 15.5% daily-sales growth and 90-basis-point operating-margin improvement support the packet's positive directional prior. On October 15, Baird raised its target from $59 to $60 while retaining Outperform.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Gross-margin pressure from larger-customer mix and price/cost could outlast SG&A leverage. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-14]
Momentum
84
Value
45
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $53.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-10-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $51.58
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +0.4
Value45 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • News driver: Fastenal Company Announces Cash Dividend and Share Repurchase Activity.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross-margin pressure from larger-customer mix and price/cost could outlast SG&A leverage. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-14]
  • • Post-print forward-estimate revisions were not established; target changes alone do not prove an earnings-upgrade cycle.
  • • Large-customer mix reduced Q3 gross margin by about 50 basis points, and price/cost by about 30 basis points.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-19

Q3 earnings repricing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+5.5
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 84.4 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 57.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$59.56B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
1.15B
P/E (TTM)
38.6
P/S (TTM)
5.91
P/FCF (TTM)
883.02
Rev YoY
+14.7%
EPS YoY
+15.9%
Gross Margin
+42.8%
Op Margin
+20.3%
Net Debt
$165.1M
Current Ratio
4.18
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data