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F

Ford MotorA
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat, higher full-year EBIT and free-cash-flow guidance, favorable mix, pricing commentary and improving cost discipline support a constructive post-earnings view. Jefferies upgraded Ford to Buy and raised its target to $17.50 from $14.50 before the print.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.
What can break
Aluminum supply constraints and continued weakness in EV demand could limit margins and volume recovery.
Momentum
64
Value
55
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.84 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.84
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +0.2
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +5.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aluminum supply constraints and continued weakness in EV demand could limit margins and volume recovery.
  • • Competitive pressure from Chinese automakers and execution risk around Ford Energy, software, pricing and cost initiatives could reduce the durability of the guidance raise.
  • • Revenue and wholesale units declined year over year, EV demand remains weak, aluminum supply constraints persist, and the quarter included $4.2 billion of pre-tax special charges.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+14.4
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.5
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+1.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 64.5 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 83.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.84
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$56.03B
Beta
1.67
Shares Out
3.99B
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
0.28
P/FCF (TTM)
6.02
Rev YoY
-3.8%
EPS YoY
+3557.1%
Gross Margin
+8.0%
Op Margin
+2.0%
Net Debt
$127.25B
Current Ratio
1.09
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data