B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
EXR
Extra Space StorageCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case hinges on sustained occupancy gains, same-store revenue growth above consensus, continued operating leverage, and multiple expansion to the low-mid 20%s above current levels.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
Localized oversupply from new development
Momentum
41
Value
59
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $155.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-01-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $158.53
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -7.3
Value59 · Δ7d -
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Localized oversupply from new development
- • Macro slowdown reducing demand for storage units
- • Bear case assumes macro weakness compresses occupancy and rent growth, accelerating new supply in key markets and pressure on FFO multiples.
Catalyst clock
2026-02-28
Q4 2025 earnings release and guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-17.1
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+9.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 40.9 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 62.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$32.41B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
211.27M
P/E (TTM)
29.3
P/S (TTM)
8.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
87.25
Rev YoY
+3.9%
EPS YoY
+6.0%
Gross Margin
+34.6%
Op Margin
+26.1%
Net Debt
$13.99B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data