B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EXPE
Expedia GroupCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that the market reaction may have over-penalized a quarter that materially beat on revenue, profitability, and cash generation, with B2B gross bookings up 22%, B2B revenue up 25%, and first-quarter profitability reaching a record seasonal level per management's prepared remarks in the earnings release [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
A large part of Q1 cash strength came from working-capital timing, including higher deferred merchant bookings and merchant payables, which can reverse across periods [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Momentum
81
Value
63
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $265.00 · Bull $290.00 · Bear $210.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $345.17
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -4.7
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A large part of Q1 cash strength came from working-capital timing, including higher deferred merchant bookings and merchant payables, which can reverse across periods [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
- • B2B was the standout growth engine in Q1, while B2C growth was slower; any normalization in B2B or weaker consumer travel demand would pressure the current thesis.
- • The bearish read is that strong Q1 execution did not translate into a higher FY outlook, which suggests management still sees enough macro or demand uncertainty to stay conservative; at T+3, packet evidence does not provide a reliable post-print analyst revision set, so the lack of confirmed estimate or target upgrades keeps this a monitoring thesis rather than a conviction upgrade.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-30
Q1 beat is confirmed, but the stock is resetting to unchanged FY guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-10.8
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+3.1
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+15.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 80.9 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 53.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$265.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$38.23B
Beta
1.42
Shares Out
120.02M
P/E (TTM)
27.5
P/S (TTM)
2.45
P/FCF (TTM)
12.37
Rev YoY
+14.0%
EPS YoY
+188.3%
Gross Margin
+84.7%
Op Margin
+16.6%
Net Debt
-$820M
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data