B+
Bull case
18%
Probability
Target price
$166.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EXPD
Expeditors International of WashingtonDNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull case is that Expeditors showed better earnings quality than the directional prior implied: Q1 EPS improved, airfreight and customs/services grew, and the asset-light model can benefit when disruption increases forwarding and brokerage complexity. If those drivers persist, the stock can hold a premium despite transportation cyclicality.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Ocean freight pricing and container volumes remained weaker year over year, with lower profitability on Asia exports a direct drag on mix.
Momentum
85
Value
50
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $142.00 · Bull $166.00 · Bear $126.00Analysis 2026-05-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $181.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -4.3
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +5.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Ocean freight pricing and container volumes remained weaker year over year, with lower profitability on Asia exports a direct drag on mix.
- • Salaries and other operating expenses rose 9% against 4% revenue growth in Q1, so operating leverage can reverse if mix weakens.
- • The cautious read is that the good quarter is already reflected in the share price and the evidence packet does not provide a strong delayed analyst-upgrade cycle.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Q1 mix improvement needs confirmation after the earnings pop
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
+17.3
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
+2.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 84.6 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 32.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
52%
Probability
Target price
$142.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$126.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.47B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
129.99M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
1.85
P/FCF (TTM)
25.20
Rev YoY
+32.1%
EPS YoY
+50.8%
Gross Margin
+15.2%
Op Margin
+9.9%
Net Debt
-$743.7M
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data