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EXE

Expand EnergyA
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter operating cash flow of $1.096 billion, debt reduction and repurchases support capital-allocation flexibility. If production holds near guidance and Twin Eagle's marketing contribution becomes visible, the acquisition could improve cash-flow durability.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Natural-gas price weakness could reduce realizations and cash available for repurchases.
Momentum
36
Value
68
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $98.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $122.25
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -1.0
Value68 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +1.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Natural-gas price weakness could reduce realizations and cash available for repurchases.
  • • Production or capital spending outside reaffirmed 2026 guidance would weaken the cash-flow case. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Gas-price sensitivity, integration costs or weaker marketing margins could offset acquisition benefits.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

First results after Twin Eagle closing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-31.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 35.7 / Value 68.1 / Sentiment 60.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$21.58B
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
231.5M
P/E (TTM)
30.3
P/S (TTM)
2.35
P/FCF (TTM)
39.81
Rev YoY
-10.6%
EPS YoY
-45.6%
Gross Margin
+48.7%
Op Margin
+21.5%
Net Debt
$4.1B
Current Ratio
0.96
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data