B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVO
Evotec SEANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The stock already reflects a severe guidance reset, while D&PD net-sales growth, high JEB utilization, new collaborations and the JST-018 clinical transition provide early evidence that Evotec's scientific and commercial platforms retain value. Execution on revenue conversion and Horizon savings could produce substantial operating leverage from a depressed base.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
FY2026 revenue guidance of €570–610 million is materially below the former €700–780 million range, while adjusted EBITDA guidance moved from €0–40 million to a €70–105 million loss [#PR-2026-08-13].
Momentum
98
Value
41
Sentiment
87
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.80 · Bull $2.75 · Bear $1.10Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.75
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment87 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 revenue guidance of €570–610 million is materially below the former €700–780 million range, while adjusted EBITDA guidance moved from €0–40 million to a €70–105 million loss [#PR-2026-08-13].
- • Horizon requires disciplined restructuring and cash management while the company continues investing in strategically important technologies.
- • H1 revenue was €300.1 million and adjusted EBITDA was negative €42.7 million, while FY2026 guidance implies a deep operating loss.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
9M results test the reduced outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
87
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 98.3 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 86.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$706.03M
Beta
1.81
Shares Out
355.18M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.0
P/S (TTM)
1.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.74
Rev YoY
-14.0%
EPS YoY
+10.0%
Gross Margin
+10.5%
Op Margin
-18.6%
Net Debt
-$33.71M
Current Ratio
2.33
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data