B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVO
Evotec SECNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Commercial indicators are improving beneath weak reported results: Evotec's company release confirmed approximately 28% growth in D&PD base-business net sales excluding strategic partnerships, high Just–Evotec Biologics capacity utilization and initial Horizon savings. Successful H2 conversion and cost execution could produce substantial upside from the depressed ADR price [#PR-2026-08-13].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Analyst-revision coverage, social sentiment, options skew, short interest and insider-transaction evidence are unavailable, reducing confidence in market-positioning conclusions.
Momentum
98
Value
41
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.55 · Bull $2.40 · Bear $0.80Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.68
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst-revision coverage, social sentiment, options skew, short interest and insider-transaction evidence are unavailable, reducing confidence in market-positioning conclusions.
- • FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance were cut sharply, raising the risk of further estimate reductions if H2 conversion slips [#PR-2026-08-13].
- • Evotec's company release confirmed a severe outlook reset: revenue guidance fell from €700–780 million to €570–610 million, while adjusted EBITDA guidance moved from €0–40 million to negative €70–105 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
Q3/9M results test reduced guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 98.3 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 56.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$568.29M
Beta
1.81
Shares Out
355.18M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
1.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.01
Rev YoY
-14.0%
EPS YoY
+10.0%
Gross Margin
+10.5%
Op Margin
-18.6%
Net Debt
-$33.71M
Current Ratio
2.33
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data