B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVH
Evolent HealthCNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The contracted oncology launch and management's 2027 growth outlook offer meaningful upside if care margins and cash conversion improve. Q2 revenue rose to $652.5 million from $444.3 million a year earlier [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
An August 26 Form 4 records a 65,892-share open-market sale by the president; this is not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-28].
Momentum
90
Value
57
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.90 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-10-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.75
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +53.7
Value57 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment37 · Δ7d -5.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • An August 26 Form 4 records a 65,892-share open-market sale by the president; this is not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-28].
- • Medicaid and client-specific membership attrition, cash-flow conversion and potential debt reduction remain execution risks [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $28.1 million from $37.5 million despite revenue growth; adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 4.3% from 8.5%, and the medical expense ratio rose to 95.3%.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Oncology partnership launch
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+53.7
Δ21d
+78.9
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
37
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-42.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 89.6 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 37.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$542.69M
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
113.06M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.9
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
23.86
Rev YoY
+46.9%
EPS YoY
-42.8%
Gross Margin
+11.9%
Op Margin
-1.3%
Net Debt
$811.71M
Current Ratio
1.24
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data