B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVH
Evolent HealthANYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish case rests on strong revenue growth, raised 2026 revenue guidance, the potential $300 million oncology launch, and management's 2027 outlook for more than 25% revenue growth and at least $150 million of adjusted EBITDA.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.
What can break
Cash was $115.7 million at June 30, 2026, while management is still evaluating debt-reduction initiatives and expects $25-$30 million of 2026 capitalized software spending.
Momentum
63
Value
58
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.80 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $3.10Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.77
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -12.4
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash was $115.7 million at June 30, 2026, while management is still evaluating debt-reduction initiatives and expects $25-$30 million of 2026 capitalized software spending.
- • Medicaid and client-specific membership attrition could reduce lives and revenue conversion.
- • The bear case is that revenue growth is not yet converting into profitability: adjusted EBITDA and margin declined materially, medical costs are elevated, and Medicaid/member attrition plus regulatory approvals could delay the forward growth plan.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 results and raised 2026 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.4
Δ21d
+52.4
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+6.6
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+12.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 63.0 / Value 57.7 / Sentiment 78.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$498.59M
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
113.06M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.9
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.92
Rev YoY
+46.9%
EPS YoY
-42.8%
Gross Margin
+11.9%
Op Margin
-1.3%
Net Debt
$811.71M
Current Ratio
1.24
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data