B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVER
EverQuoteDNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that EverQuote combined a clean Q1 beat with strong Q2 guidance, record adjusted EBITDA, record operating cash flow, and continued buybacks, while the balance sheet remains debt-free. T+1 analyst revision flow was not yet broadly available, so the fundamental read is stronger than the external confirmation so far.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Auto insurance providers generated 91% of 2025 revenue, and the top two customers accounted for 49% of 2025 revenue, leaving results sensitive to a small number of carrier budgets [#10-K-2026-02-24].
Momentum
86
Value
66
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.50
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +3.9
Value66 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment21 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Auto insurance providers generated 91% of 2025 revenue, and the top two customers accounted for 49% of 2025 revenue, leaving results sensitive to a small number of carrier budgets [#10-K-2026-02-24].
- • Customer contracts do not carry long-term minimum financial commitments, so spend can fall quickly even if operational execution stays solid [#10-K-2026-02-24].
- • The bear case is that the market did not hold the initial earnings spike, suggesting investors still doubt the durability of carrier demand, AI monetization, or peak-margin conditions.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 print beat company guidance and Q2 outlook stayed strong
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+9.9
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.2
Sentiment
21
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 86.3 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 21.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$833.42M
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
35.24M
P/E (TTM)
17.7
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
10.88
Rev YoY
+24.6%
EPS YoY
+37.2%
Gross Margin
+97.6%
Op Margin
+11.0%
Net Debt
-$168.81M
Current Ratio
3.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data