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EVER

EverQuoteD
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that EverQuote combined a clean Q1 beat with strong Q2 guidance, record adjusted EBITDA, record operating cash flow, and continued buybacks, while the balance sheet remains debt-free. T+1 analyst revision flow was not yet broadly available, so the fundamental read is stronger than the external confirmation so far.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Auto insurance providers generated 91% of 2025 revenue, and the top two customers accounted for 49% of 2025 revenue, leaving results sensitive to a small number of carrier budgets [#10-K-2026-02-24].
Momentum
30
Value
66
Sentiment
20
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $29.50
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +15.9
Value66 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment20 · Δ7d -2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Auto insurance providers generated 91% of 2025 revenue, and the top two customers accounted for 49% of 2025 revenue, leaving results sensitive to a small number of carrier budgets [#10-K-2026-02-24].
  • • Customer contracts do not carry long-term minimum financial commitments, so spend can fall quickly even if operational execution stays solid [#10-K-2026-02-24].
  • • The bear case is that the market did not hold the initial earnings spike, suggesting investors still doubt the durability of carrier demand, AI monetization, or peak-margin conditions.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 print beat company guidance and Q2 outlook stayed strong

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.9
Δ21d
+23.8
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
20
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-16.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 30.1 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 20.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$801.35M
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
35.24M
P/E (TTM)
17.7
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
10.88
Rev YoY
+24.6%
EPS YoY
+37.2%
Gross Margin
+97.6%
Op Margin
+11.0%
Net Debt
-$168.81M
Current Ratio
3.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data