B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
EVCM
EverCommerceCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance, net income improved to $9.7 million from $5.8 million, and subscription and transaction-fee revenue grew 3.2%. Delivery within the next guidance ranges, combined with disciplined repurchases, could narrow the discount to the packet's $11 median analyst target [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Execution risk is elevated during the transition from founder Eric Remer to a new CEO [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
43
Value
59
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.00 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.00
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d -44.6
Value59 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk is elevated during the transition from founder Eric Remer to a new CEO [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Full-year results may land near the lower end of management's ranges after the balance-of-year outlook was moderated [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Growth remained modest, adjusted EBITDA declined slightly year over year, and management shifted expectations toward the lower end of full-year ranges.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-01
Q3 execution against moderated 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-44.6
Δ21d
+28.9
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-15.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 43.4 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 53.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.66B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
176.67M
P/E (TTM)
8800.0
P/S (TTM)
3.48
P/FCF (TTM)
19.18
Rev YoY
+2.7%
EPS YoY
+22.9%
Gross Margin
+67.1%
Op Margin
+13.4%
Net Debt
$407.47M
Current Ratio
2.03
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data