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EVCM

EverCommerceA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved net income, durable subscription and transaction revenue, EBITDA above guidance, share repurchases, and a large SMB customer base could support re-rating if growth reaccelerates under the new CEO.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.
What can break
CEO transition creates execution and strategic-continuity risk.
Momentum
3
Value
58
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.00
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d -0.1
Value58 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CEO transition creates execution and strategic-continuity risk.
  • • Full-year 2026 results are expected toward the lower end of the company's guidance ranges.
  • • Revenue growth remains modest, Adjusted EBITDA was slightly below the prior-year quarter, management expects 2026 results near the low end of guidance, and repeated founder/director dispositions add supply pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-01

Q3 execution against moderated 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-46.3
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.7
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
+21.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 2.9 / Value 57.7 / Sentiment 83.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.79B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
176.67M
P/E (TTM)
8800.0
P/S (TTM)
3.48
P/FCF (TTM)
19.18
Rev YoY
+2.7%
EPS YoY
+22.9%
Gross Margin
+67.1%
Op Margin
+13.4%
Net Debt
$407.47M
Current Ratio
2.03
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data