B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$440.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ETN
EatonCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Eaton's Q1 release confirmed unusually strong electrical and aerospace demand, backlog expansion, book-to-bill above 1.0 in key franchises, and a full-year organic growth guide raise, giving fundamental support to further estimate resilience if execution holds.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Full-year segment margin guidance of 24.1-24.5% and Q2 segment margin guidance of 22.6-23.0% leave limited room for execution slips if mix, capacity ramp, or integration costs run hotter than planned [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Momentum
60
Value
48
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $411.34 · Bull $440.00 · Bear $355.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $485.22
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -11.0
Value48 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -5.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Full-year segment margin guidance of 24.1-24.5% and Q2 segment margin guidance of 22.6-23.0% leave limited room for execution slips if mix, capacity ramp, or integration costs run hotter than planned [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • Management's forward-looking statements explicitly cite supply, labor, inflation, geopolitical, tariff, cybersecurity, and separation-execution risks [#10-K-2026-02-26][#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The bear case is that the stock still sold off after a record quarter because expectations were already elevated, Q2 margin guidance stayed tight, Mobility remained weak, and acquisition/spin execution adds another layer of risk; delayed analyst revision evidence is limited in the packet and target-change coverage was not clearly available by 2026-05-08.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 print confirmed strong demand but mixed near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.0
Δ21d
-6.2
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.9
Δ21d
+1.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 60.3 / Value 48.5 / Sentiment 57.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$411.34
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$176.88B
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
388.4M
P/E (TTM)
32.2
P/S (TTM)
4.70
P/FCF (TTM)
72.43
Rev YoY
+21.4%
EPS YoY
-16.0%
Gross Margin
+35.9%
Op Margin
+19.4%
Net Debt
$9.88B
Current Ratio
1.24
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data