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ESTC

ElasticA
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q1 print supports a constructive thesis: 15% revenue growth, 21% cRPO growth, record net additions to the over-$100,000 ACV cohort, and improving AI, security and observability momentum. The current price of $88.42 is below the packet's $110.21 median target estimate, although target-count coverage is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Analyst coverage and peer comparability are limited; the available peer set is mostly adjacent software.
Momentum
98
Value
46
Sentiment
90
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $108.00 · Bull $130.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $110.21
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +0.4
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment90 · Δ7d +13.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst coverage and peer comparability are limited; the available peer set is mostly adjacent software.
  • • GAAP operating margin was -5%, leaving execution and non-GAAP margin conversion important.
  • • One strong quarter may not establish a durable acceleration.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Execution credibility and insider-sale overhang

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+4.5
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
90
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.8
Δ21d
+37.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 98.2 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 90.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.67B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
103.95M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
23.9
P/S (TTM)
4.87
P/FCF (TTM)
25.90
Rev YoY
+16.0%
EPS YoY
-2755.0%
Gross Margin
+76.1%
Op Margin
-1.8%
Net Debt
-$780.47M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data