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ESTC

ElasticC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 FY27 showed balanced momentum: revenue and subscription revenue grew 15%, cRPO grew 21%, the greater-than-$100,000 ACV cohort reached more than 1,800, and adjusted free cash flow was $143 million. Stored secondary post-earnings coverage also reported raised FY27 revenue and margin guidance plus broad target increases, supporting a positive—but not fully independent—revision signal.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Failure to convert 21% cRPO growth into sustained revenue acceleration would weaken the principal forward-growth signal. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
Momentum
88
Value
45
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $111.32
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +4.7
Value45 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -12.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Failure to convert 21% cRPO growth into sustained revenue acceleration would weaken the principal forward-growth signal. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
  • • GAAP profitability remains unresolved: Q1 produced a $24 million GAAP operating loss and a $0.16 GAAP loss per share. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
  • • The shares already reacted strongly to the print, net expansion was approximately 111%, and Elastic still reported a $24 million GAAP operating loss.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Q2 growth and margin validation

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+2.2
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.7
Δ21d
-17.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 87.7 / Value 45.1 / Sentiment 53.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.86B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
105.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
29.3
P/S (TTM)
4.87
P/FCF (TTM)
25.90
Rev YoY
+16.0%
EPS YoY
-2755.0%
Gross Margin
+76.1%
Op Margin
-1.8%
Net Debt
-$780.47M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data