ESTC

ElasticC

NYSE / Software & Services

At close

2026-07-18

Current thesis

The print was clean enough to support a constructive rerate: revenue and EPS beat, CRPO/RPO accelerated, AI usage is broadening, and management is pointing to better margin structure in FY27 and beyond. If backlog converts as planned, the company can keep growing into its AI/search/security platform story.

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

What can break

AI adoption is encouraging but still functions more as a supporting demand signal than a standalone, fully de-risked growth metric.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $50.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-18

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-18

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $75.67

Why

Momentum53 · Δ7d +4.7

Value48 · Δ7d -0.1

Sentiment55 · Δ7d -6.2

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+4.7

Δ21d

-16.6

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.1

Δ21d

-0.2

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-6.2

Δ21d

-11.9

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 53.2 / Value 47.9 / Sentiment 54.6

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-17

Market Cap

$6.4B

Beta

0.94

Shares Out

103.95M

P/E (TTM) · Derived

17.6

P/S (TTM)

4.87

P/FCF (TTM)

25.90

Rev YoY

+16.0%

EPS YoY

-2755.0%

Gross Margin

+76.1%

Op Margin

-2.1%

Net Debt

-$780.47M

Current Ratio

1.59

As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology