B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
+98.9% vs current
ESRT
Empire State Realty TrustCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
At close
2026-07-21
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
+44.7% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
-0.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2025-09-28
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-31.6
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-31.6
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+96.1
Score
AI commentary
Market tone is cautiously constructive: recent share action shows limited upside priced for modest recovery but significant sensitivity to macro and rate shocks [#yahoo]. Investor focus remains on leasing metrics and debt maturity transparency in filings [#10Q-Q2-2025]. Short-term sentiment is mixed; catalysts center on earnings and leasing newsflow.
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2025-09-28
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
-eventQuarterly earnings / guidance updateHigh impact
Q3/Q4 earnings release and accompanying guidance could reprice shares given occupancy and rent trends in Manhattan office/retail [#10Q-Q2-2025].
-catalystInterest rates / refinancing pressureHigh impact
Higher rates or adverse refinancing terms on maturing debt could compress NAV and trigger downside [#10K-debt-profile].
-catalystManhattan leasing and office demand recoveryHigh impact
Sustained rent growth or large lease renewals/expansions at flagship assets could drive multi-quarter outperformance vs peers [#PR-lease-announcement].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2025-09-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology