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ESRT

Empire State Realty TrustC
NYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong leasing and possible asset-value realization could lift shares if signed space converts to rent and Observation Deck NOI stabilizes. The deterministic prior is positive, but these outcomes are not yet confirmed.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Adjusted second-quarter same-store property cash NOI declined 3.2% year over year after nonrecurring abatements; free rent and operating costs were headwinds. Company Q2 release
Momentum
76
Value
54
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.80 · Bull $5.80 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.20
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +15.6
Value54 · Δ7d -
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -10.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted second-quarter same-store property cash NOI declined 3.2% year over year after nonrecurring abatements; free rent and operating costs were headwinds. Company Q2 release
  • • Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 6.6x at June 30, although the company reported $0.5 billion of liquidity and no unaddressed debt maturity until January 2028. Company Q2 release
  • • The 2026 Core FFO range was cut to $0.75–$0.79 from $0.85–$0.89, adjusted same-store cash NOI declined, and Observation Deck visibility remains weak.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03

Third-quarter results and Observation Deck outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.6
Δ21d
+61.1
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-49.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.1 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 46.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$867.4M
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
173.13M
P/E (TTM)
49.6
P/S (TTM)
1.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
20.82
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
-494.3%
Gross Margin
+27.0%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
$2.27B
Current Ratio
3.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data