B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ESRT
Empire State Realty TrustBNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes steady leasing momentum in Midtown, improved street-level retail, and successful modest accretive capital recycling leading to ~40–50% upside within 12 months.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Large tenant vacancies or credit events
Momentum
13
Value
53
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2025-09-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-09-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.90
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -2.9
Value53 · Δ7d -
Sentiment74 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Large tenant vacancies or credit events
- • Rising interest rates / adverse refinancing
- • Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected office re-leasing, higher-than-forecast refinancing costs, and occupancy declines that drive a ~25–30% drawdown.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.9
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 12.7 / Value 52.6 / Sentiment 74.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-09-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$806.8M
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
173.13M
P/E (TTM)
49.6
P/S (TTM)
1.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
19.37
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
-494.3%
Gross Margin
+27.0%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
$2.27B
Current Ratio
3.03
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data