B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.72
-77.4% vs current
ESNT
Essent GroupDNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$8.48
-84.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.09
-90.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-01-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.6
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
0.0
Score
AI commentary
Third‑party aggregators show bullish dollar targets clustered well above the authoritative anchor, producing a disconnect. We therefore treat external targets with caution and prioritize credit trends and capital-actions as the primary drivers of near‑term sentiment.
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-02-28eventQ4 / Full‑Year Earnings Release (estimated)High impact
Quarterly results and management commentary may drive a material re‑rating; analyst coverage shows high 12‑month targets in scraped results but those figures are inconsistent with the authoritative anchor and treated as untrusted for target construction [#SERP-1][#SERP-3]. Date assumes typical post‑quarter reporting — see assumption.
2026-04-15catalystNear‑term Credit Performance / Default Trend UpdateHigh impact
Borrower performance and loss reserve revisions (mortgage default trends) are near‑term drivers; analysts cite continued low defaults as supportive, which could limit downside [#SERP-2].
2027-01-15catalystCapital Allocation / Dividend/Buyback ExpectationsHigh impact
Longer‑term re‑rating could follow clearer capital return plans or sustained underwriting outperformance; consensus targets scraped are materially higher than the anchor and were reviewed but treated as untrusted for setting scenario targets [#SERP-1][#SERP-5].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-01-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology